EPL 6 · Grand Finals

Analyst preview, straight from the model
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Grand Finals · Play-all-7 Series

Thirty-five games.
Two giants clash for the title.

After three weeks of grueling round-robin matches, the field has been cut to the final two giants: CMC (55.3% title) and HBB (44.7% title) will fight for the championship. The grand finals is a massive 35-game match consisting of 5 series of play-all-7. In their Week 2 round-robin meeting, HBB edged out CMC in a razor-thin 13-12 victory, powered by JulianK's 4-1 win over Hazza and Kevin's 3-2 victory against LukasL.

To optimize their chances for the finals, both managers have shaken up the board. The teams' top-two boards have been swapped compared to the round robin: instead of OnlyBaus vs Keturboy and JulianK vs Hazza, we now get the blockbuster matchups of Keturboy vs JulianK on Board 1, and Hazza vs OnlyBaus on Board 2. The remaining three boards (Kevin vs LukasL, Daniel vs Dennis, and Zoom vs Batu) remain identical rematches from Week 2.

CMC
CMC
55.3%
to win title
HBB
HBB
44.7%
to win title

Baseline going into the Grand Finals based on all 150 completed round-robin games. See the live forecast for current odds.

Keturboy vs JulianK Grand Finals · Series 1
The call · before the series

"One of the most storied matchups in ESOC history, with 25 career head-to-head games on the record."

Keturboy 42.5%57.5% JulianK
63.9%
JulianK takes the series
2.98 – 4.02
Expected score
15 – 10
Career H2H, JulianK
3–4 (24.5%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 3 Recap & Live Form:
• Keturboy: Won 4–1 against Psionic · Performance Elo 2426 → 2424 (-2.0 form)
• JulianK: Won 3–2 against Phoenix · Performance Elo 2492 → 2480 (-12.0 form)

A premier heavyweight matchup between the two highest-rated players in the league, marking one of the most storied rivalries in ESOC history with 25 career head-to-head games. JulianK has been the league's anchor, holding a 2480 Performance Elo rating. Keturboy matches him closely at 2424, but JulianK holds a historical 15-10 head-to-head advantage (10.1-7.6 recency-weighted) from their past careers. We estimate JulianK to have a 57.5% per-game win chance and a 63.9% series win probability.

Stakes: A tight 4–3 win for JulianK drops CMC's title odds to 56.4% (giving HBB 43.6%). If Keturboy can reverse the odds and secure a 4–3 win, it lifts CMC to 68.0%. A dominant 7-0 sweep by Keturboy pushes CMC's title odds to 93.6%, while a 7-0 sweep by JulianK surges HBB's title odds to 81.4%.

For the stats nerds

JulianK leads the raw head-to-head 15-10 (10.1-7.6 recency-weighted). The head-to-head blend places JulianK at 57.5% per game (pure ladder Elo would instead favor Keturboy at 55.2%). Full scoreline distribution (Keturboy first): 7–0 0.9% · 6–1 4.3% · 5–2 11.3% · 4–3 19.6% · 3–4 24.5% · 2–5 22.0% · 1–6 13.2% · 0–7 4.1%.

What-if title probability grid:

Score (Keturboy - JulianK)CMC TitleHBB Title
7–093.6%6.4%
6–188.5%11.5%
5–279.7%20.3%
4–368.0%32.0%
3–456.4%43.6%
2–541.8%58.2%
1–628.9%71.1%
0–718.6%81.4%
Hazza vs OnlyBaus Grand Finals · Series 2
The call · before the series

"Hazza enters in sizzling form after a sweep in Week 3, making him the favorite, though OnlyBaus holds the raw talent to spark a major HBB upset."

Hazza 75.9%24.1% OnlyBaus
91.1%
Hazza takes the series
5.31 – 1.69
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
6–1 (30.7%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 3 Recap & Live Form:
• Hazza: Won 5–0 against Ezad · Performance Elo 2408 → 2430 (+22.0 form)
• OnlyBaus: Lost 1–4 to Frontline · Performance Elo 2243 → 2223 (-20.0 form)

This is a premier debut matchup. Hazza enters the series in spectacular form, coming off a dominant 5–0 sweep against Ezad in Week 3 and carrying a 2430 Performance Elo. OnlyBaus has struggled to find consistency, dropping a 1-4 series to Frontline last week and carrying a 2223 Performance Elo. The rating gap makes Hazza a heavy favorite at 75.9% per game, yielding a 91.1% series win probability.

Stakes: An expected 5–2 win for Hazza keeps CMC's title odds at 50.3%. If OnlyBaus can pull off a 4–3 upset, HBB's championship odds jump to 62.7%. A 7-0 sweep for OnlyBaus would lock HBB's title hopes at 93.4%, while a 7-0 sweep for Hazza pushes CMC's title hopes to 74.9%.

For the stats nerds

This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing Hazza at 75.9% per game (pure ladder Elo would instead favor OnlyBaus at 63.6%). Full scoreline distribution (Hazza first): 7–0 18.3% · 6–1 30.7% · 5–2 26.6% · 4–3 15.5% · 3–4 6.5% · 2–5 2.0% · 1–6 0.4% · 0–7 0.0%.

What-if title probability grid:

Score (Hazza - OnlyBaus)CMC TitleHBB Title
7–074.9%25.1%
6–163.8%36.2%
5–250.3%49.7%
4–337.3%62.7%
3–426.1%73.9%
2–517.3%82.7%
1–610.9%89.1%
0–76.6%93.4%
LukasL vs Kevin Grand Finals · Series 3
The call · before the series

"Kevin is in blistering form after a sweep of Optimus, making him a major favorite in this classic rematch."

LukasL 29.9%70.1% Kevin
84.7%
Kevin takes the series
2.09 – 4.91
Expected score
3 – 2
Week 2 H2H, Kevin
2–5 (28.0%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 3 Recap & Live Form:
• LukasL: Won 3–2 against SoldieR · Performance Elo 2074 → 2086 (+12.0 form)
• Kevin: Won 5–0 against Optimus · Performance Elo 2175 → 2238 (+63.0 form)

A classic rematch with plenty of history. Kevin is in blistering form, coming off a spectacular 5–0 sweep of Optimus in Week 3 that earned him a +63 Performance Elo adjustment and a +27 tournament Elo delta. LukasL secured a tight 3-2 victory over SoldieR last week but rates lower due to Kevin's surging form (2238 vs 2086). Kevin won their Week 2 meeting 3-2, giving him a 70.1% per-game win chance and a 84.7% series win probability.

Stakes: The expected 5–2 win for Kevin shifts the title odds in favor of HBB at 53.9% (leaving CMC at 46.1%). If LukasL can secure a 4–3 upset, it pushes CMC's title odds back to 79.9%. A 7-0 sweep by Kevin pushes HBB's title odds to 71.6%, while a 7-0 sweep by LukasL would lock CMC's title hopes at 96.3%.

For the stats nerds

Kevin won their Week 2 meeting 3-2. The head-to-head blend places Kevin at 70.1% per game (pure ladder Elo would instead favor LukasL at 55.4%). Full scoreline distribution (LukasL first): 7–0 0.1% · 6–1 0.9% · 5–2 3.8% · 4–3 10.5% · 3–4 20.5% · 2–5 28.0% · 1–6 25.0% · 0–7 11.3%.

What-if title probability grid:

Score (LukasL - Kevin)CMC TitleHBB Title
7–096.3%3.7%
6–193.2%6.8%
5–288.2%11.8%
4–379.9%20.1%
3–468.2%31.8%
2–553.9%46.1%
1–641.1%58.9%
0–728.4%71.6%
Daniel vs Dennis Grand Finals · Series 4
The call · before the series

"A very closely contested coin-flip between two highly consistent performers."

Daniel 54.3%45.7% Dennis
58.2%
Daniel takes the series
3.80 – 3.20
Expected score
3 – 2
Week 2 H2H, Daniel
4–3 (25.0%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 3 Recap & Live Form:
• Daniel: Won 3–2 against Minimoult · Performance Elo 2142 → 2142 (0.0 form)
• Dennis: Did not play in Week 3 · Performance Elo 2110 → 2109 (-1.0 form)

A very closely contested coin-flip between two consistent players. Daniel has had a strong EPL campaign, coming off a tight 3-2 victory against Minimoult in Week 3. Dennis is also in solid form after a slight +3 form adjustment. Daniel holds a slight Performance Elo rating advantage (2145 vs 2109), giving him a 54.3% per-game win chance and a 58.2% series win probability after Daniel won their Week 2 meeting 3-2.

Stakes: A projected 4–3 win for Daniel secures a 58.3% title chance for CMC. If Dennis can secure a 4–3 win for HBB, HBB's title odds climb to 55.6%. A 7-0 sweep by Daniel pushes CMC's title hopes to 90.3%, while a 7-0 sweep by Dennis pushes HBB's title hopes to 88.9%.

For the stats nerds

They met in Week 2, with Daniel winning 3-2. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing Daniel at 54.3% per game (pure ladder Elo would instead favor Dennis at 63.9%). Full scoreline distribution (Daniel first): 7–0 2.7% · 6–1 10.5% · 5–2 20.0% · 4–3 25.0% · 3–4 21.9% · 2–5 13.5% · 1–6 5.4% · 0–7 1.1%.

What-if title probability grid:

Score (Daniel - Dennis)CMC TitleHBB Title
7–090.3%9.7%
6–182.5%17.5%
5–271.7%28.3%
4–358.3%41.7%
3–444.4%55.6%
2–530.6%69.4%
1–619.6%80.4%
0–711.1%88.9%
Zoom vs Batu Grand Finals · Series 5
The call · before the series

"Zoom enters carrying massive form momentum, holding a slight rating edge over Batu."

Zoom 53.6%46.4% Batu
56.9%
Zoom takes the series
3.75 – 3.25
Expected score
3 – 2
Week 2 H2H, Zoom
4–3 (25.0%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 3 Recap & Live Form:
• Zoom: Won 5–0 against JLafet · Performance Elo 2025 → 2065 (+40.0 form)
• Batu: Won 3–2 against IamTurk · Performance Elo 2025 → 2040 (+15.0 form)

A high-stakes closer between two clutch players. Zoom enters the match carrying immense momentum after a dominant 5–0 sweep against JLafet in Week 3, earning a +46 form adjustment. Batu is also in solid shape, coming off a 3-2 victory over IamTurk. Zoom holds a slight Elo advantage (2065 vs 2040) which, after Zoom won their Week 2 meeting 3-2, translates to a 53.6% per-game win chance and a 56.9% series win probability.

Stakes: A projected 4–3 win for Zoom leaves CMC's title odds at 59.5%. If Batu can pull off a 4–3 win for HBB, it puts HBB in the driver's seat with 55.2% title odds. A 7-0 sweep for Zoom pushes CMC's title hopes to 90.6%, while a 7-0 sweep for Batu pushes HBB's title hopes to 88.4%.

For the stats nerds

They met in Week 2, with Zoom winning 3-2. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing Zoom at 53.6% per game (pure ladder Elo would slightly favor Batu at 50.1%). Full scoreline distribution (Zoom first): 7–0 2.5% · 6–1 9.9% · 5–2 19.5% · 4–3 25.0% · 3–4 22.4% · 2–5 14.0% · 1–6 5.7% · 0–7 1.1%.

What-if title probability grid:

Score (Zoom - Batu)CMC TitleHBB Title
7–090.6%9.4%
6–183.3%16.7%
5–272.7%27.3%
4–359.5%40.5%
3–444.8%55.2%
2–531.4%68.6%
1–620.3%79.7%
0–711.6%88.4%