EPL 6 · Week 2

Analyst recap, straight from the model
↩ EPL 6 Home Elo Rankings ← Live forecast
Week 2 · June 18 – 21, 2026

Ten series.
Two rivalries.

With all ten Week 2 series complete, the top two spots are locked up by CMC and HBB, leaving SKG trailing and MDS mathematically eliminated.

MDS managed a couple of highlights, including SoldieR's 4-1 win over Milk n Honey and Minimoult's 3-2 victory against IamTurk, but sweeps by Optimus (5-0 over Shake) and Frontline (5-0 over Psionic) sealed a 16-9 victory for SKG. Meanwhile, HBB edged CMC 13-12 in their heavyweight clash, powered by JulianK's 4-1 victory over Hazza and Kevin's 3-2 win against LukasL, despite narrow 3-2 wins for CMC's Keturboy, Daniel, and Zoom.

The live forecast now has CMC at 98.3% to reach the final, HBB 88.0%, SKG 13.7%, and MDS at 0.0%.

CMC
CMC
49.6%
title · 95.8% final
HBB
HBB
42.0%
title · 84.6% final
SKG
SKG
8.2%
title · 18.6% final
MDS
MDS
0.2%
title · 0.9% final

Baseline going into the week based on 50 observed games from Week 1. After ten completed Week 2 series: CMC 98.3% to reach the final, HBB 88.0%, SKG 13.7%, MDS 0.0% — see the live forecast for current odds.

Mandarin Duck Squad vs Somali Kabuli Gaming

Pre-week expected game total: SKG 14.4 – 10.6 MDS (of 25). Actual final: SKG 16 – 9 MDS.

Shake vs Optimus final 0–5 Played Jun 18
The call · before the series

"Optimus is a massive favorite on paper, but Shake has the tournament grit to make it a series."

Shake 27.8%72.2% Optimus
87.9%
Optimus takes the series
1.21 – 3.79
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
1–4 (35.9%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 1 Recap & Live Form:
• Shake: Lost 2–3 to Dennis · Elo 2104 → 2094 (-10.0 form)
• Optimus: Won 5–0 against LukasL · Elo 2270 → 2303 (+33.0 form)

Optimus is in red-hot form, coming off a dominant 5–0 sweep in Week 1 and holding a spectacular 37-game ladder win streak. Shake, on the other hand, is trying to bounce back from a tight 2–3 defeat. With Optimus carrying all the momentum and rating advantage, Shake will need a career-best performance to pull off an upset.

Stakes: The expected 4–1 win for Optimus leaves MDS with a tiny 0.8% chance to reach the finals. However, if Shake can pull off a 3–2 upset, it triples MDS's hopes to 2.4% while cutting SKG's finals odds to 10.3%. A major 4–1 upset by Shake pushes MDS's odds to 3.8% and shrinks SKG's to 7.2%.

For the stats nerds

This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing Shake at 27.8% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Shake slightly higher at 33.4%). Full scoreline distribution (Shake first): 5–0 0.3% · 4–1 2.4% · 3–2 9.3% · 2–3 22.8% · 1–4 35.9% · 0–5 29.2%.

What happened · after the series
0–5 (29.2%)
2nd-likeliest scoreline
0.6% → 0.3%
MDS finals odds
17.9% → 24.8%
SKG finals odds
+14
Optimus form adjustment

Optimus swept 5-0, hitting the second-likeliest scoreline (29.2%) and continuing his dominant run. This result immediately boosted SKG's playoff hopes, climbing from 17.9% to 24.8%, while narrowing MDS's path to 0.3%. Optimus earned a +14 form adjustment, while Shake dropped by -14.

Psionic vs Frontline final 0–5 Played Jun 22
The call · before the series

"The closest series of the matchup — Psionic's tournament form meets Frontline's steadiness."

Psionic 41.9%58.1% Frontline
61.8%
Frontline takes the series
2.14 – 2.86
Expected score
3 – 4
Career H2H, Frontline
2–3 (29.2%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 1 Recap & Live Form:
• Psionic: Lost 2–3 to OnlyBaus · Elo 2198 → 2193 (-5.0 form)
• Frontline: Lost 1–4 to Keturboy · Elo 2255 → 2247 (-8.0 form)

Both players are eager to rebound after tough losses in Week 1. Psionic showed great fight in a narrow 2–3 defeat to OnlyBaus, proving he can compete with the league's best. Frontline is looking to dust himself off after a 1–4 loss to Keturboy. In their last meeting, Frontline edged out a 4–3 victory, though that came immediately after Psionic completed a grueling 24-hour stream. With both players now searching for their first win, expect another closely contested battle.

Stakes: The expected 3–2 win for Frontline leaves MDS with a 0.9% chance to reach the finals. If Psionic can score a 3–2 upset, it nearly doubles MDS's finals hopes to 1.6% and drops SKG to 13.3%. A 4–1 win by Psionic would lift MDS to 2.5% and cut SKG to 9.4%.

For the stats nerds

Frontline leads the raw head-to-head 4–3 (3.8–2.9 recency-weighted). The head-to-head blend places Psionic at 41.9% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Frontline slightly more at 34.7% for Psionic). Full scoreline distribution (Psionic first): 5–0 3.0% · 4–1 11.8% · 3–2 23.3% · 2–3 29.2% · 1–4 23.2% · 0–5 9.4%.

What happened · after the series
0–5 (8.9%)
5th-likeliest scoreline
0.2% → 0.0%
MDS finals odds
6.2% → 13.7%
SKG finals odds
+14
Frontline form adjustment

Frontline swept 5-0, an outcome that was only the 5th-likeliest at 8.9%, but a huge statement of intent. Since it was the last series of the week, this sweep finalized SKG's final odds to reach the playoffs at 13.7% and officially mathematically eliminated MDS (0.0%). Frontline's simulated strength adjusted +14 higher, while Psionic fell by -19.

Ezad vs Phoenix final 2–3 Played Jun 20
The call · before the series

"Phoenix is the heavy favorite, but Ezad needs to steal games if MDS wants to keep their 0.9% Grand Final dream alive."

Ezad 29.7%70.3% Phoenix
75.5%
Phoenix takes the series
1.69 – 3.31
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
1–4 (30.4%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 1 Recap & Live Form:
• Ezad: Lost 0–5 to JulianK · Elo 2225 → 2196 (-29.0 form)
• Phoenix: Lost 0–5 to Hazza · Elo 2375 → 2320 (-55.0 form)

This is a bounce-back match for two players who suffered brutal 0–5 sweeps in Week 1. Phoenix, usually one of the league's top players, was shocked by Hazza and is looking to restore his reputation. Although Phoenix looked a bit off last week, in practice matches with JulianK he has shown dominant form, taking multiple games off the league's best. Ezad is also searching for answers after being swept by JulianK. The player who shakes off their Week 1 disappointment first will have a massive edge here.

Stakes: The expected 4–1 win for Phoenix leaves MDS with just a 0.5% chance to reach the finals. If Ezad can pull off a 3–2 upset, MDS's finals hopes rise to 2.1% while dropping SKG to 12.0%. A 4–1 Ezad win pushes MDS to 3.4% and drops SKG to 8.3%.

For the stats nerds

This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing Ezad at 29.7% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Ezad slightly higher at 36.7%). Full scoreline distribution (Ezad first): 5–0 1.2% · 4–1 6.4% · 3–2 16.9% · 2–3 28.4% · 1–4 30.4% · 0–5 16.7%.

What happened · after the series
2–3 (28.4%)
2nd-likeliest scoreline
0.2% → 0.2%
MDS finals odds
25.2% → 22.7%
SKG finals odds
-5
Phoenix form adjustment

Phoenix won 3-2 in a close battle, hitting the 2nd-likeliest scoreline (28.4%). Despite the loss, Ezad's strong showing actually earned him a +3 form adjustment, while Phoenix dropped slightly by -5. SKG's finals odds dipped from 25.2% to 22.7% due to dropping two games to a lower-seeded team, while MDS remained at 0.2%.

SoldieR vs Milk n Honey final 4–1 Played Jun 20
The call · before the series

"MDS's best chance for a series win — SoldieR's tournament form meets Milk n Honey's inconsistency."

SoldieR 58.8%41.2% Milk n Honey
58.5%
SoldieR takes the series
2.76 – 2.24
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
3–2 (28.7%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 1 Recap & Live Form:
• SoldieR: Lost 1–4 to Kevin · Elo 2080 → 2058 (-22.0 form)
• Milk n Honey: Did not play in Week 1 · Elo 2018 → 2018 (0.0 form)

SoldieR is looking to regain his footing after a tough 1–4 loss to Kevin last week, where he struggled to find his rhythm. He faces Milk n Honey, who is making his tournament debut this week and represents a fresh, unpredictable threat. SoldieR has the experience advantage, but Milk n Honey's fresh start makes him a dangerous opponent.

Stakes: The expected 3–2 win for SoldieR holds MDS's finals hopes at 0.9% and SKG at 17.7%. If SoldieR can push for a larger 4–1 win, it lifts MDS's odds to 1.8% and drops SKG to 13.6%. Conversely, if Milk n Honey sweeps 5–0, MDS is left with a tiny 0.2% chance while SKG surges to 32.5%.

For the stats nerds

This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing SoldieR at 58.8% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Milk n Honey slightly higher at 41.5% for SoldieR). Full scoreline distribution (SoldieR first): 5–0 8.3% · 4–1 21.5% · 3–2 28.7% · 2–3 24.4% · 1–4 13.3% · 0–5 3.7%.

What happened · after the series
4–1 (21.5%)
3rd-likeliest scoreline
0.1% → 0.2%
MDS finals odds
20.8% → 14.1%
SKG finals odds
+12
SoldieR form adjustment

SoldieR won 4-1, hitting the 3rd-likeliest scoreline (21.5%) and showing a strong performance. The result adjusted SoldieR +12 in form, while Milk n Honey fell -28 in his tournament debut. This win for MDS further damaged SKG's reach-final odds, pulling them down to 14.1%.

Minimoult vs IamTurk final 3–2 Played Jun 20
The call · before the series

"Minimoult holds the edge, but IamTurk's tournament correction makes this a dangerous trap."

Minimoult 55.6%44.4% IamTurk
58.0%
Minimoult takes the series
2.74 – 2.26
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
3–2 (28.9%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 1 Recap & Live Form:
• Minimoult: Lost 2–3 to Batu · Elo 2089 → 2066 (-23.0 form)
• IamTurk: Lost 2–3 to Zoom · Elo 2050 → 2030 (-20.0 form)

Both players suffered heartbreaking 2–3 losses in Week 1 and are desperate to get on the board. Minimoult played a very close series against Batu and is in solid form despite the loss. IamTurk is also in decent shape, having pushed Zoom to a full five games before falling just short. This is a very evenly matched series where form is neck-and-neck.

Stakes: The expected 3–2 win for Minimoult holds MDS's finals hopes at 1.0% and SKG at 16.7%. If Minimoult can secure a larger 4–1 victory, MDS's odds rise to 1.9% and SKG falls to 12.1%. If IamTurk sweeps 5–0, MDS's hopes virtually disappear at 0.1% while SKG jumps to 36.2%.

For the stats nerds

This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing Minimoult at 55.6% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Minimoult slightly higher at 64.3%). Full scoreline distribution (Minimoult first): 5–0 7.9% · 4–1 21.2% · 3–2 28.9% · 2–3 24.8% · 1–4 13.5% · 0–5 3.7%.

What happened · after the series
3–2 (28.9%)
most likely scoreline
0.2% → 0.1%
MDS finals odds
22.7% → 20.8%
SKG finals odds
+3
Minimoult form adjustment

Minimoult won 3-2, hitting the most likely scoreline at 28.9%. This result had a very minor rating impact, adjusting Minimoult +3 and IamTurk -2. SKG's finals odds slid slightly to 20.8%, while MDS stayed at 0.1%.

Hudson Bay BIGs vs Cuirassier Management Co.

Pre-week expected game total: CMC 12.7 – 12.3 HBB (of 25). Actual final: HBB 13 – 12 CMC.

Dennis vs Daniel final 2–3 Played Jun 19
The call · before the series

"A classic toss-up series — Daniel's tournament surge meets Dennis's steady efficiency."

Dennis 52.2%47.8% Daniel
53.0%
Daniel takes the series
2.41 – 2.59
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
2–3 (28.1%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 1 Recap & Live Form:
• Dennis: Won 3–2 against Shake · Elo 2112 → 2122 (+10.0 form)
• Daniel: Won 4–1 against Aizamk · Elo 2097 → 2136 (+39.0 form)

A clash of two winning players carrying great momentum. Dennis secured a solid 3–2 victory over Shake last week, showing cool composure under pressure. Daniel is in even better form, coming off an impressive 4–1 win against Aizamk. While Dennis holds a slight rating edge, Daniel's surging confidence makes this a true coin-flip series.

Stakes: The expected 3–2 win for Daniel drops HBB's finals hopes to 82.9% and lifts CMC to 97.0%. If Dennis can secure a 3–2 victory for HBB, their finals odds rise to 87.9% and CMC drops to 94.6%. A larger 4–1 win for Dennis pushes HBB to 91.8% and drops CMC to 91.7%.

For the stats nerds

This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing Dennis at 52.2% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Dennis higher at 63.9%). Full scoreline distribution (Dennis first): 5–0 4.7% · 4–1 15.8% · 3–2 26.6% · 2–3 28.1% · 1–4 18.7% · 0–5 6.2%.

What happened · after the series
2–3 (28.3%)
most likely scoreline
79.2% → 77.7%
HBB finals odds
95.7% → 96.9%
CMC finals odds
+7
Daniel form adjustment

Daniel won 3-2, hitting the modal scoreline of 2-3 at 28.3% chance. This tight victory for CMC nudged their finals odds up to 96.9%, while HBB dropped slightly to 77.7%. Daniel earned a +7 form adjustment, and Dennis saw a -6 shift.

OnlyBaus vs Keturboy final 2–3 Played Jun 21
The call · before the series

"Keturboy is heavily favored, but OnlyBaus has the high ceiling to pull off the ultimate upset."

OnlyBaus 24.7%75.3% Keturboy
86.4%
Keturboy takes the series
1.28 – 3.72
Expected score
1 – 4
Career H2H, Keturboy
1–4 (35.5%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 1 Recap & Live Form:
• OnlyBaus: Won 3–2 against Psionic · Elo 2236 → 2241 (+5.0 form)
• Keturboy: Won 4–1 against Frontline · Elo 2430 → 2438 (+8.0 form)

Keturboy is the league's highest-rated player and looked dominant in his 4–1 win last week, showing why he is the title favorite. OnlyBaus also won his opening series 3–2 and is looking to build on that momentum. In their last meeting at the Spring Championship 2026, Keturboy took a commanding 4–1 victory, but OnlyBaus has the raw talent to challenge the top seed if he finds his rhythm.

Stakes: The expected 4–1 win for Keturboy leaves HBB with an 83.6% chance to reach the finals and CMC at 96.3%. If OnlyBaus can pull off a 3–2 upset, HBB's odds rise to 92.3% and CMC drops to 91.5%. A massive 4–1 upset by OnlyBaus would push HBB to 95.3% and drop CMC to 87.8%.

For the stats nerds

Keturboy leads the raw head-to-head 4–1 (3.6–0.9 recency-weighted). The head-to-head blend aligns with the rating gap, placing OnlyBaus at 24.7% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor OnlyBaus slightly higher at 36.1%). Full scoreline distribution (OnlyBaus first): 5–0 0.4% · 4–1 2.8% · 3–2 10.3% · 2–3 24.0% · 1–4 35.5% · 0–5 27.0%.

What happened · after the series
2–3 (24.0%)
3rd-likeliest scoreline
90.8% → 94.4%
HBB finals odds
99.5% → 99.2%
CMC finals odds
+8
OnlyBaus form adjustment

Keturboy won 3-2, hitting the 3rd-likeliest scoreline at 24.0% probability. OnlyBaus's strong showing against the top seed earned him a +8 form adjustment, while Keturboy dropped slightly by -5. This left HBB's reach-finals odds at 94.4% and CMC's at 99.2%.

Kevin vs LukasL final 3–2 Played Jun 21
The call · before the series

"Kevin is the clear favorite, carrying strong tournament form against LukasL's recent struggles."

Kevin 58.4%41.6% LukasL
74.0%
Kevin takes the series
3.25 – 1.75
Expected score
9 – 6
Career H2H, Kevin
4–1 (29.6%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 1 Recap & Live Form:
• Kevin: Won 4–1 against SoldieR · Elo 2155 → 2177 (+22.0 form)
• LukasL: Lost 0–5 to Optimus · Elo 2096 → 2063 (-33.0 form)

Kevin is riding high after a convincing 4–1 win over SoldieR in Week 1, demonstrating excellent tournament form. In contrast, LukasL is at a low point after suffering a painful 0–5 sweep at the hands of Optimus. LukasL is desperate to salvage his tournament run, but Kevin's steady play and high confidence make him a formidable hurdle.

Stakes: The expected 4–1 win for Kevin keeps HBB at 88.4% and CMC at 94.1%. If LukasL can pull off a 3–2 upset for CMC, HBB's finals odds drop to 78.5% and CMC rises to 98.3%. A larger 4–1 win for LukasL would drop HBB to 72.4% and push CMC to 99.0%.

For the stats nerds

Kevin leads the raw head-to-head 9–6 (5.2–1.8 recency-weighted). The head-to-head blend places Kevin at 58.4% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor LukasL at 44.6% for Kevin). Full scoreline distribution (Kevin first): 5–0 15.6% · 4–1 29.6% · 3–2 28.7% · 2–3 17.7% · 1–4 6.9% · 0–5 1.4%.

What happened · after the series
3–2 (28.7%)
2nd-likeliest scoreline
86.9% → 85.6%
HBB finals odds
98.8% → 99.2%
CMC finals odds
-1
Kevin form adjustment

Kevin won 3-2 in a tight series, which was the 2nd-likeliest scoreline at 28.7%. Because the scoreline was so close to expectation, the rating adjustments were flat (Kevin -1, LukasL +0). HBB's finals odds saw a microscopic dip to 85.6% while CMC rose slightly to 99.2%.

Batu vs Zoom final 2–3 Played Jun 21
The call · before the series

"A battle of the margins — Batu's tournament experience meets Zoom's unchartered potential."

Batu 53.3%46.7% Zoom
55.5%
Batu takes the series
2.67 – 2.33
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
3–2 (28.5%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 1 Recap & Live Form:
• Batu: Won 3–2 against Minimoult · Elo 2015 → 2038 (+23.0 form)
• Zoom: Won 3–2 against IamTurk · Elo 1992 → 2012 (+20.0 form)

A matchup between two players who pulled off clutch 3–2 victories last week. Batu showed great tournament grit by defeating the higher-rated Minimoult, while Zoom made a highly successful debut by edging out IamTurk. Both players enter in great spirits and excellent form, making this one of the most unpredictable series of the week.

Stakes: The expected 3–2 win for Batu lifts HBB's finals odds to 86.3% and leaves CMC at 95.4%. If Zoom can score a 3–2 victory for CMC, HBB drops to 81.4% and CMC rises to 97.4%. A 4–1 win for Zoom would drop HBB to 75.5% and lift CMC to 98.7%.

For the stats nerds

This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing Batu at 53.3% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Batu slightly lower at 50.1%). Full scoreline distribution (Batu first): 5–0 7.1% · 4–1 20.0% · 3–2 28.5% · 2–3 25.7% · 1–4 14.6% · 0–5 4.2%.

What happened · after the series
2–3 (25.5%)
2nd-likeliest scoreline
85.6% → 84.2%
HBB finals odds
99.2% → 99.6%
CMC finals odds
+14
Zoom form adjustment

Zoom won 3-2, hitting the 2nd-likeliest scoreline (25.5%). Zoom continues to show excellent tournament conditioning, adding a +14 form adjustment, while Batu dropped by -8. This CMC win boosted their finals odds to 99.6%, while HBB slipped to 84.2%.

JulianK vs Hazza final 4–1 Played Jun 21
The call · before the series

"The marquee series of the week — a true heavyweight battle that could decide the match."

JulianK 58.1%41.9% Hazza
56.6%
JulianK takes the series
2.70 – 2.30
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
3–2 (28.6%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 1 Recap & Live Form:
• JulianK: Won 5–0 against Ezad · Elo 2436 → 2465 (+29.0 form)
• Hazza: Won 5–0 against Phoenix · Elo 2379 → 2434 (+55.0 form)

A blockbuster clash between the league's two titans, both coming off spectacular 5–0 sweeps in Week 1. JulianK remains the gold standard of consistency, while Hazza put on a masterclass by sweeping Phoenix. Both players are in peak form, and this series will serve as a massive statement of intent for the championship title.

Stakes: The expected 3–2 win for JulianK lifts HBB to an 86.5% chance to reach the finals and leaves CMC at 95.4%. If Hazza can win 3–2 for CMC, HBB's odds drop to 81.4% and CMC rises to 97.5%. A 4–1 win for Hazza drops HBB to 75.6% and pushes CMC to 98.7%.

For the stats nerds

This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing JulianK at 58.1% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor JulianK higher at 71.5%). Full scoreline distribution (JulianK first): 5–0 7.5% · 4–1 20.5% · 3–2 28.6% · 2–3 25.3% · 1–4 14.1% · 0–5 4.0%.

What happened · after the series
4–1 (20.7%)
3rd-likeliest scoreline
84.2% → 90.8%
HBB finals odds
99.6% → 99.5%
CMC finals odds
+10
JulianK form adjustment

JulianK won 4-1 in the titanic clash of sweeps, hitting the 3rd-likeliest scoreline (20.7%). JulianK's dominant victory adjusted his tournament Elo +10 higher, while Hazza fell -25. This result swung HBB's reach-finals odds up to 90.8%, while CMC dipped slightly to 99.5%.