Week 3 · June 25 – July 5, 2026
1 week to go.
Playoff spots on the line.
Going into the final week of the round-robin, the playoff race is a numbers game. While CMC (28 GW) is virtually locked in, a high-stakes clash between HBB (31 GW) and SKG (25 GW) will decide the second finalist—and mathematically, even MDS (16 GW) holds a path to a miracle. To qualify:
• SKG needs at least 16 wins against HBB to guarantee overtaking them.
• MDS needs at least 19 wins against CMC (plus favorable results in the HBB vs SKG match) to pull off the miracle.
Play with the playoff scenario matrix below to see all the possibilities.
Top level expected match totals (of 25 games):
• Match 1 (MDS vs CMC): projected at CMC 15.9 – 9.1 MDS
• Match 2 (HBB vs SKG): projected at HBB 13.0 – 12.0 SKG
CMC
49.7%
title · 99.2% final
HBB
46.3%
title · 93.5% final
SKG
4.0%
title · 7.3% final
MDS
0.0%
title · 0.0% final
Playoff Scenario Matrix
This matrix shows the qualifying finalists for every possible combination of Week 3 match scores.
Each cell represents one outcome: the X-axis is SKG's wins against HBB (0 to 25); the Y-axis is MDS's wins against CMC (0 to 25).
Hover or tap on any cell to view final standings and see who advances. The gold ring marks the expected outcome.
Baseline going into the week based on 110 observed games. After two completed Week 3 series: CMC 99.2% to reach the final, HBB 93.5%, SKG 7.3%, MDS 0.0% — see the live forecast for current odds.
Minimoult vs Daniel
final 2–3
Played Jun 25
The call · before the series
"Daniel has the rating edge, but Minimoult is in winning form, making it a tight series."
Minimoult 39.6%60.4% Daniel
68.9%
Daniel takes the series
1.98 – 3.02
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
2–3 (34.6%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 2 Recap & Live Form:
• Minimoult: Won 3–2 against IamTurk · Performance Elo 2066 → 2069 (+3.0 form)
• Daniel: Won 3–2 against Dennis · Performance Elo 2135 → 2142 (+7.0 form)
Daniel has been a standout performer for CMC, coming off a 3–2 win against Dennis in Week 2 and boasting a +125 Elo delta over his ladder rating. Minimoult rebounded from a Week 1 loss to beat IamTurk 3–2 in Week 2, and looks to anchor a struggling MDS roster. While Daniel holds the ratings advantage, Minimoult's recent match play keeps this series highly competitive.
Stakes: For CMC, a projected 3–2 win for Daniel pushes them to 99.0% finals probability, all but locking their spot. For MDS, Minimoult needs to maximize every single game win to keep their mathematical 'Miracle Scenario' alive. A 3–2 or 4–1 upset by Minimoult keeps MDS within striking distance of the 19-game win target they need to force a tie-breaker. Every game Minimoult drops directly damages their slim playoff survival hopes.
For the stats nerds
This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing Minimoult at 39.6% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Minimoult at 58.5%). Full scoreline distribution (Minimoult first): 5–0 1.0% · 4–1 7.5% · 3–2 22.7% · 2–3 34.6% · 1–4 26.3% · 0–5 8.0%.
What happened · after the series
2–3 (34.6%)
most likely scoreline
98.2% → 99.1%
CMC finals odds
-1
Minimoult form adjustment
The series finished 2–3 in Daniel's favor, hitting the exact expected scoreline (2–3 was the modal scoreline at 34.6% probability). This result adjusted Daniel +2 in ELO, while Minimoult fell by -1. While CMC's finals odds climbed to 99.1%, the 2–3 loss was a blow to MDS's miracle path: by dropping 3 games in the opening series, MDS now needs to win an average of 4.25 games per series (17 out of 20 remaining games) across the remaining four matchups to keep their final hopes alive.
Batu vs IamTurk
final 3–2
Played Jun 26
The call · before the series
"An even coin-flip match where both players seek consistency after trading narrow series."
Batu 52.3%47.7% IamTurk
54.3%
Batu takes the series
2.62 – 2.38
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
3–2 (32.5%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 2 Recap & Live Form:
• Batu: Lost 2–3 to Zoom · Performance Elo 2038 → 2025 (-13.0 form)
• IamTurk: Lost 2–3 to Minimoult · Performance Elo 2029 → 2026 (-3.0 form)
Both players are looking to establish consistency. Batu won 3–2 in Week 1 but lost 2–3 to Zoom in Week 2, holding a tournament Elo of 2025 (+18 over ladder). IamTurk pushed Zoom in Week 1 (2–3 loss) and Minimoult in Week 2 (2–3 loss), holding a tournament Elo of 2026 (+57 over ladder). With both players rating-matched, it is a coin-flip matchup where game margins will decide the series.
Stakes: The expected 3–2 win for IamTurk leaves HBB's finals hopes at 86.1% and CMC's at 98.6%. If Batu can pull off a 3–2 victory for HBB, HBB's finals odds rise to 93.5% and CMC rises to 99.2%, while SKG's finals odds drop to 7.3%. A larger 4–1 win for Batu pushes HBB to 97.5% and drops SKG's finals odds to 3.0%.
For the stats nerds
This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing Batu at 52.3% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Batu higher at 55.4%). Full scoreline distribution (Batu first): 5–0 3.9% · 4–1 17.8% · 3–2 32.5% · 2–3 29.7% · 1–4 13.5% · 0–5 2.5%.
What happened · after the series
3–2 (32.5%)
most likely scoreline
87.5% → 93.5%
HBB finals odds
13.4% → 7.3%
SKG finals odds
Batu won 3–2 in a tight series, hitting the most likely scoreline (32.5% probability). This crucial victory for HBB adjusted Batu's ELO +9 higher, while IamTurk fell by -6. It was a massive result for HBB, swinging their finals odds up from 87.5% to 93.5% and crushing SKG's finals hopes down from 13.4% to 7.3%.
OnlyBaus vs Frontline
Scheduled Jun 27 20:00 GMT
The call · before the series
"A classic head-to-head rivalry, with their most recent December 2025 showmatch favoring Frontline."
OnlyBaus 42.9%57.1% Frontline
61.6%
Frontline takes the series
2.15 – 2.85
Expected score
6 – 12
Career H2H, Frontline
2–3 (29.9%)
Most likely scoreline
• OnlyBaus: Lost 2–3 to Keturboy · Performance Elo 2232 → 2243 (+11.0 form)
• Frontline: Won 5–0 against Psionic · Performance Elo 2253 → 2293 (+40.0 form)
A historic rivalry with 18 previous tournament games recorded, including their most recent December 2025 "Best of NA" showmatch where Frontline took a 4–1 victory. Frontline leads the raw head-to-head 12-6 (9.1-4.3 recency-weighted). Frontline is coming off a dominant 5-0 sweep of Psionic in Week 2 and holds an updated tournament Elo of 2293. OnlyBaus lost 2–3 to Keturboy in Week 2, and has a tournament Elo of 2243. Backed by their showmatch history, Frontline's per-game win chance rises slightly to 57.1%, giving him 61.6% series win probability.
Stakes: An expected 3–2 win for Frontline leaves HBB at 95.1% and SKG at 5.6% to reach the finals. If OnlyBaus can secure a 3–2 win for HBB, their finals odds rise to 98.6% while dropping SKG to 1.8%. A 5-0 sweep by OnlyBaus locks HBB's finals spot at 100.0% and mathematically eliminates SKG's finals hopes (0.0%). Conversely, a 5-0 sweep for Frontline drops HBB to 74.0% and lifts SKG to 27.9%.
For the stats nerds
Frontline leads the raw head-to-head 12-6 (9.1-4.3 recency-weighted) including the Best of NA showmatch. The head-to-head blend places OnlyBaus at 42.9% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor OnlyBaus higher at 66.9% for OnlyBaus). Full scoreline distribution (OnlyBaus first): 5–0 2.8% · 4–1 11.7% · 3–2 23.9% · 2–3 29.9% · 1–4 23.0% · 0–5 8.7%.
Ezad vs Hazza
Scheduled Jun 28 12:00 GMT
The call · before the series
"Hazza is a massive favorite on paper, but Ezad's steady play in Week 2 makes him a trap opponent."
Ezad 23.9%76.1% Hazza
87.6%
Hazza takes the series
1.24 – 3.76
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
1–4 (36.2%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 2 Recap & Live Form:
• Ezad: Lost 2–3 to Phoenix · Performance Elo 2197 → 2207 (+10.0 form)
• Hazza: Lost 1–4 to JulianK · Performance Elo 2434 → 2408 (-26.0 form)
Ezad pushed Phoenix to a close 2–3 loss in Week 2, earning +10 form. Hazza is looking to rebound after a tough 1–4 loss to JulianK in Week 2, which saw his form drop by -26. Hazza holds a massive tournament Elo rating of 2408 (+129 over ladder), making him a heavy favorite (P=87.6% series win) over Ezad.
Stakes: A Hazza victory preserves CMC's final appearance prospects at 99.2% (with a 2-3 score) or higher. An upset 3–2 win by Ezad drops CMC slightly to 97.6% and raises SKG's hopes to 8.4%. A massive 5–0 sweep for Ezad drops CMC's finals odds to 88.4%, triples SKG's chances to 15.4%, and lifts MDS's own playoff finals odds from 0.0001% to 0.39%.
For the stats nerds
This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing Ezad at 23.9% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Ezad slightly higher at 54.7%). Full scoreline distribution (Ezad first): 5–0 0.3% · 4–1 2.4% · 3–2 9.7% · 2–3 23.8% · 1–4 36.2% · 0–5 27.6%.
Kevin vs Optimus
Scheduled Jun 28 14:00 GMT
The call · before the series
"Optimus is in red-hot sweep form, but Kevin's tournament grit makes HBB highly dangerous."
Kevin 29.1%70.9% Optimus
81.2%
Optimus takes the series
1.50 – 3.50
Expected score
1–4 (33.4%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 2 Recap & Live Form:
• Kevin: Won 3–2 against LukasL · Performance Elo 2177 → 2175 (-2.0 form)
• Optimus: Won 5–0 against Shake · Performance Elo 2303 → 2330 (+27.0 form)
Optimus has been a dominant force, sitting at a perfect 10–0 record in EPL Season 6 and a 37-game win streak on the ranked ladder. Kevin beat LukasL 3–2 in a hard-fought Week 2 series, but rates significantly lower than Optimus (2175 vs 2330). Optimus is a strong favorite at 81.2% series win.
Stakes: The expected 4–1 win for Optimus leaves HBB's finals odds at 92.4% and SKG's at 8.4%. If Kevin can pull off a 3–2 upset, HBB's odds rise to 99.3% and SKG drops to 0.9%. Conversely, a 5-0 sweep for Optimus boosts SKG's finals odds to 22.2% and drops HBB to 85.3%.
For the stats nerds
Optimus leads the raw head-to-head 3-1 (0.5-0.2 recency-weighted). The head-to-head blend places Kevin at 29.1% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Kevin slightly less at 27.1%). Full scoreline distribution (Kevin first): 5–0 0.7% · 4–1 4.3% · 3–2 13.8% · 2–3 27.2% · 1–4 33.4% · 0–5 20.6%.
JLafet vs Zoom
Scheduled Jun 28 16:00 GMT
The call · before the series
"An extremely close matchup where Zoom's tournament momentum meets JLafet's ladder credentials."
JLafet 47.3%52.7% Zoom
54.1%
Zoom takes the series
2.38 – 2.62
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
2–3 (28.3%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 2 Recap & Live Form:
• JLafet: Did not play in Week 2 · Performance Elo 2006 → 2006 (0.0 form)
• Zoom: Won 3–2 against Batu · Performance Elo 2013 → 2025 (+12.0 form)
JLafet is making his first appearance for MDS. Because JLafet has minimal past tournament experience, most of his Elo is derived from his ladder performance, where he is an India main; this series will serve as a crucial test of his other civilizations. Zoom is coming off a clutch 3–2 win against Batu in Week 2, which earned him a +12 form adjustment. Zoom's strong tournament play (+19 Elo delta) makes this a very even series on paper despite JLafet's rating.
Stakes: The expected 3–2 win for Zoom keeps HBB's finals odds at 93.3% and CMC's at 99.3%. If JLafet can pull off a 3–2 win for MDS, HBB's odds tick up to 93.7% and CMC drops to 99.3%. A 5-0 sweep for JLafet drops CMC's finals odds to 95.1%, raises SKG's hopes to 10.1%, and boosts MDS's playoff finals odds from 0.0001% to 0.18%.
For the stats nerds
This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing JLafet at 47.3% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor JLafet higher at 62.7%). Full scoreline distribution (JLafet first): 5–0 4.4% · 4–1 15.3% · 3–2 26.2% · 2–3 28.3% · 1–4 19.2% · 0–5 6.6%.
JulianK vs Phoenix
Scheduled Jun 28 20:00 GMT
The call · before the series
"A titan battle where JulianK's peak form makes him the favorite over the slumping Phoenix."
JulianK 74.3%25.7% Phoenix
85.2%
JulianK takes the series
3.65 – 1.35
Expected score
4–1 (35.3%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 2 Recap & Live Form:
• JulianK: Won 4–1 against Hazza · Performance Elo 2466 → 2493 (+27.0 form)
• Phoenix: Won 3–2 against Ezad · Performance Elo 2320 → 2309 (-11.0 form)
A premier heavyweight matchup. JulianK is in historic form, coming off a 4–1 win over Hazza and carrying a +54 tournament Elo delta (2493 rating) along with a 12-game ladder win streak. Phoenix is coming off a 3–2 win over Ezad but has seen his Elo rating fall to 2309 (-98 delta). JulianK holds an 8-4 head-to-head advantage (5.8-2.8 recency-weighted), making him a heavy favorite (P=85.2% series win).
Stakes: A 4–1 win for JulianK drops SKG's finals odds to 3.1% and keeps HBB's at 97.4%. If Phoenix can pull off a 3–2 upset, SKG's finals hopes rise to 10.3% while HBB drops to 90.9%. A larger 4–1 win for Phoenix raises SKG to 38.6% and drops HBB to 63.6%. A 5-0 sweep for Phoenix pushes SKG to 56.3% and drops HBB to 45.8%.
For the stats nerds
JulianK leads the raw head-to-head 8-4 (5.8-2.8 recency-weighted). The head-to-head blend places JulianK at 74.3% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor JulianK slightly less at 54.6%). Full scoreline distribution (JulianK first): 5–0 24.4% · 4–1 35.3% · 3–2 25.4% · 2–3 11.3% · 1–4 3.1% · 0–5 0.4%.
Psionic vs Keturboy
Scheduled Jun 29 19:00 GMT
The call · before the series
"Keturboy is the heavy rating favorite, but Psionic holds a surprising undefeated historical match record."
Psionic 17.2%82.8% Keturboy
94.1%
Keturboy takes the series
0.90 – 4.10
Expected score
0–5 (40.0%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 2 Recap & Live Form:
• Psionic: Lost 0–5 to Frontline · Performance Elo 2192 → 2153 (-39.0 form)
• Keturboy: Won 3–2 against OnlyBaus · Performance Elo 2439 → 2426 (-13.0 form)
Psionic had a tough Week 2, losing 0-5 to Frontline and dropping -39 in form. Keturboy is the league's top-rated player (tournament Elo 2426) despite dropping slightly (-13 form) after a narrow 3–2 win against OnlyBaus in Week 2. Psionic holds a surprising 3-0 head-to-head record (2.2-0.0 recency-weighted) over Keturboy, but the model still strongly favors Keturboy due to the rating gap (P=94.1% series win).
Stakes: A 4–1 win for Keturboy leaves CMC's finals odds at 99.7% and SKG's at 7.1%. An upset 3–2 win by Psionic raises SKG's finals odds to 9.5% and drops CMC to 96.3%. A 5-0 sweep by Psionic raises SKG's finals odds to 17.2%, drops CMC to 86.0%, and boosts MDS's playoff finals odds from 0.0001% to 0.44%.
For the stats nerds
Psionic leads the raw head-to-head 3-0 (2.2-0.0 recency-weighted). The head-to-head blend places Psionic at 17.2% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Psionic slightly less at 12.9%). Full scoreline distribution (Psionic first): 5–0 0.1% · 4–1 0.9% · 3–2 5.0% · 2–3 17.1% · 1–4 36.9% · 0–5 40.0%.
SoldieR vs LukasL
Scheduled July 1 22:00 GMT
The call · before the series
"An extremely close coin-flip where SoldieR's H2H edge meets LukasL's steady baseline."
SoldieR 51.0%49.0% LukasL
52.3%
SoldieR takes the series
2.57 – 2.43
Expected score
3–2 (28.4%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 2 Recap & Live Form:
• SoldieR: Won 4–1 against Milk n Honey · Performance Elo 2058 → 2081 (+23.0 form)
• LukasL: Lost 2–3 to Kevin · Performance Elo 2064 → 2074 (+10.0 form)
SoldieR is coming off a great 4–1 victory over Milk n Honey in Week 2, which earned him a +23 form adjustment. LukasL had a tough series against Kevin in Week 2, losing 2–3, but earned a +10 form adjustment. SoldieR holds a 4-2 head-to-head advantage (1.6-0.8 recency-weighted) over LukasL. The model favors SoldieR slightly (P=52.3% series win) in what is projected to be a very tight series.
Stakes: A 3–2 win for SoldieR leaves CMC's finals odds at 99.5% and HBB's at 93.4%. If LukasL can pull off a 3–2 win for CMC, CMC's odds rise to 99.8% and HBB drops to 93.2%. A 5-0 sweep for SoldieR drops CMC's finals odds to 95.8%, raises SKG's hopes to 9.4%, and lifts MDS's playoff finals odds from 0.0001% to 0.13%.
For the stats nerds
SoldieR leads the raw head-to-head 4-2 (1.6-0.8 recency-weighted). The head-to-head blend places SoldieR at 51.0% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor LukasL higher at 71.2% for LukasL). Full scoreline distribution (SoldieR first): 5–0 5.7% · 4–1 18.2% · 3–2 28.4% · 2–3 27.2% · 1–4 16.0% · 0–5 4.6%.
Dennis vs Aizamk
Scheduled July 5 15:00 GMT
The call · before the series
"A critical series where Dennis's stability meets Aizamk's massive historical Elo delta."
Dennis 52.4%47.6% Aizamk
53.9%
Dennis takes the series
2.62 – 2.38
Expected score
First meeting
Tournament H2H
3–2 (28.5%)
Most likely scoreline
Week 2 Recap & Live Form:
• Dennis: Lost 2–3 to Daniel · Performance Elo 2122 → 2110 (-12.0 form)
• Aizamk: Did not play in Week 2 · Performance Elo 2091 → 2093 (+2.0 form)
Dennis is in solid form, coming off a -12 form adjustment in Week 2 despite losing 2–3 to Daniel. Aizamk is making his Week 3 debut, and has a massive +235 Elo delta above his ladder rating due to strong historical tournament play. Dennis is a slight favorite (P=53.9% series win) due to his consistent ratings and recent play.
Stakes: The expected 3–2 win for Dennis leaves HBB's finals odds at 97.5% and SKG's at 2.9%. If Aizamk can pull off a 3–2 win for SKG, HBB's finals odds drop to 92.9% and SKG's rise to 8.0%. A larger 4–1 win for Aizamk pushes SKG's finals odds to 18.6% and drops HBB to 83.2%. A 5-0 sweep for Aizamk drops HBB to 67.6% and raises SKG to 34.8%.
For the stats nerds
This is their first recorded tournament meeting. The head-to-head blend aligns exactly with the rating gap, placing Dennis at 52.4% per game (pure ladder Elo would favor Dennis higher at 81.0% for Dennis). Full scoreline distribution (Dennis first): 5–0 6.3% · 4–1 19.0% · 3–2 28.5% · 2–3 26.5% · 1–4 15.3% · 0–5 4.3%.
